Robust energy resource additions should ease pressure on the U.S. power grid this summer from rising electricity demand, but parts of the country’s bulk power system still face reliability risks, the North American Electric Reliability Corp. said Tuesday.
Along with growing demand from data centers and other sources, grid operators are dealing with more intense heat during typically milder times of the year such as spring, when some power plants are offline for seasonal maintenance.
“The improved conditions we’re seeing shouldn’t be interpreted as saying that overall reliability risk is declining,” said John Moura, NERC’s director of reliability assessment and system analysis, during a webinar on the grid watchdog’s 2026 Summer Reliability Assessment.
“While we’ve made a lot of progress bringing resources online … we do see some risks emerging,” he added.
The North American bulk power system has added a little over 58 gigawatts of new resources since summer 2025, improving risk outlooks for some areas, NERC said in its new report.
As a result, all regions assessed by NERC are expected to have adequate energy reserves during normal summer peak load conditions.
But projected demand growth is also strong, fueled partly by electrification and data centers and other large loads. Expectations for demand to climb in the decade ahead amid many thermal plant retirements prompted NERC to warn of energy shortfalls across much of the U.S. in its latest long-term reliability assessment released in January.
Despite energy resource growth in the past year, some parts of the U.S. are still at elevated risk of blackouts this summer, meaning electricity supply could fall short of demand during more intense, persistent or widespread heat.
“NERC’s findings once again show that grid reliability risks persist, leaving areas of the country vulnerable during extreme summer weather,” NRECA CEO Jim Matheson said. “Co-ops will remain vigilant, focusing on long-term threats to the grid in the face of skyrocketing electricity demand. More than ever, we need smart energy policies that safeguard reliability, keep energy affordable, and put American families and businesses first.”
Higher demand along with the potential for drier-than-normal weather conditions from the El Niño weather pattern is placing the Pacific Northwest at elevated risk of blackouts this summer, NERC said. The region gets 55% of its generation from hydropower.
Demand growth from electrification alongside a drop in firm energy imports is putting New England at elevated risk as well. Far West Texas could also face constraints during periods of high demand combined with low wind power output and an absence of solar generation.
Several regions cut their load forecasts from mid-2025 projections due to data centers coming online more slowly than expected. But aggregated peak demand across NERC-assessed areas has increased 11 GW since summer 2025—exceeding the 10 GW gain in the prior-year period.
A high portion of the capacity additions are solar energy and other variable resources, meaning grid operators should adjust their operating plans to resolve potential supply issues related to low wind power output or other factors, NERC said.
“We are seeing a record-breaking amount of on-peak capacity being interconnected in a single year strengthening system readiness for summer conditions,” Moura said in a release on the summer assessment. “However, increasing risks for early fall and winter seasons reinforce the need for additional firm and dispatchable resources to maintain reliability and meet rising electricity demand.”
Molly Christian is a staff writer for NRECA.