Soaring power demand, including from data centers and the electrification of the economy, could contribute to energy supply shortfalls in some areas during extreme weather this winter, the North American Electric Reliability Corp. warned on Tuesday.
The report echoed other recent assessments from NERC, including longer-term outlooks, that expect sufficient energy resources during normal conditions but potential supply shortfalls and power outages under more intense weather. Those threats to reliability stem partly from a large number of fossil fuel power plant retirements in the U.S., as well as surging demand from data centers and other large loads.
“This report clearly shows that demand for electricity is skyrocketing—especially in areas serving new data centers—and reliability is still at risk,” NRECA CEO Jim Matheson said. “The addition of new resources, though significant, isn’t keeping up. Now more than ever, we need smart energy policies that keep the lights on and address this growing energy deficit.”
In NERC’s winter reliability report released Nov. 18, all areas assessed by the grid watchdog are expected to have adequate energy resources during normal winter weather conditions.
But amid shrinking power supply margins, more severe cold or wintry weather over a wide area could result in supply shortages, according to NERC.
“Record-setting demand is anticipated for some areas and may strain the grid in areas with double-digit growth rates,” the grid watchdog said in a video on its new report.
Areas at elevated risk of electricity supply shortfalls during extreme conditions this winter include the Pacific Northwest, Texas, New England and much of the Southeast. New England also faces risks to natural gas pipeline capacity in the event of extreme weather.
Peak demand for all areas NERC assesses has increased by 20 gigawatts, or 2.5%, since the previous winter, surpassing a 9.4 GW net gain in bulk power system resources. The vast majority of net capacity additions—or 8.1 GW—is from demand response resources, which can encourage customers to reduce their energy usage, rather than generation.
Some of the regions in NERC’s assessment are forecasting almost 10% demand growth. Areas with the biggest forecasted peak demand increases include the Southeast, parts of the West and the PJM Interconnection, which spans sections of the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest.
NERC noted that freezing temperatures can threaten natural gas-based generation and fuel supplies, particularly in the South. It urged natural gas utilities to prepare for severe cold and advised utilities and grid operators to require freeze protection measures and other cold weather preparedness plans.
“Electricity demand continues to grow faster than the resources being added to the grid, especially during the most extreme winter conditions where actual demand can topple forecasts,” said John Moura, NERC’s director of reliability assessments and performance analysis. “This latest assessment highlights progress on cold weather readiness but underscores that more work remains to ensure energy and fuel supplies can be reliably delivered even during the harshest conditions.”
Molly Christian is a staff writer for NRECA.